You and every competitor buy from the same list.
APIP changes what you are buying from.
Over $100B in CMBS loans mature in 2026, and more than half will not refinance. The whole market already knows that part. So every desk pulls the same Trepp or CRED iQ distress export and goes hunting. The edge is no longer the list. The edge is knowing which owner on it will actually transact, and why.
- LOAN 00-4471$••.• MDELINQUENTOWNER ?WILL SELL ?
- LOAN 00-2298$••.• MDELINQUENTOWNER ?WILL SELL ?
- LOAN 00-8810$••.• MDELINQUENTOWNER ?WILL SELL ?
- LOAN 00-3357$••.• MDELINQUENTOWNER ?WILL SELL ?
- LOAN 00-6642$••.• MDELINQUENTOWNER ?WILL SELL ?
- LOAN 00-1109$••.• MDELINQUENTOWNER ?WILL SELL ?
- LOAN 00-9923$••.• MDELINQUENTOWNER ?WILL SELL ?
- CRITICALSponsor piercedNo extension left · over-levered x3 assets✓
- CRITICALSponsor piercedPartnership split · forced timeline✓
- HIGHSponsor piercedDY 6.1% · refi gap at maturity✓
- HIGHSponsor piercedPortfolio rebalance · exiting market✓
- MODERATESponsor piercedWatching rates · soft intent✓
$929B in CRE debt matures between 2024 and 2028.
APIP maps every loan in your target market to its maturity date, servicer status, and owner entity, so you reach the distressed owner before the asset surfaces in a broker package.
- Maturity date from CMBS servicer data
- IO period expiry tracking
- Special servicer transfer alerts
- Refi activity monitoring via deed filings
Three losses, every cycle.
Analyst time burned
To pierce LLCs, skip-trace principals, and cold-call your way to a handful of maybes.
The same distress export
Every competitor pulled the same Trepp or CRED iQ flag set. There is no proprietary signal in the list itself.
The motivated sellers are gone
By the time you finish triage, the genuinely ready owners are already in conversation with whoever reached them first.
Days, not weeks. Warm, not cold. First, not last.
- Day 1
Pull the distress export from Trepp / CRED iQ. So does every other buyer. Same ~1,000 flagged loans.
- Days 1-3
Triage by type, geo, debt yield, maturity by hand. Hundreds still standing.
- 1-3 hrs ea.
Pierce the LLC. Chase the principal through state filings and broker contacts.
- 1-2 hrs ea.
Skip-trace for a phone or email that actually connects.
- Weeks
Cold-call blind. You know the loan is distressed, not whether the owner will sell.
- Low yield
Most go nowhere. Distress ≠ intent. The real sellers already went to whoever got there first.
- Live
Same distress signals flow in. APIP scores the owner's motivation, not just the loan's risk.
- Minutes
The Motivation Index ranks 1,000 assets into ~40 owners ready now, banded CRITICAL → NOT READY, each with the reason, the pierced owner, and a verified contact.
- Same day
Go straight to the 40 conversations that matter, reason in hand. CrAIg re-scores daily as the wall moves.
Eight dimensions. One read on what is changing.
- What gets scoredThe loan's default riskThe owner's intent to sell
- What you receiveA list of distressed loansA ranked pipeline of motivated sellers
- Who else has itEvery competitor, commoditizedOnly you. Proprietary and reason-coded
- The ownerHunt manually, often dead-endsPierced + verified contact, delivered
- Why they'll sellYou guessDocumented, per seller
- The outreachCold, blind, low hit-rateWarm, reason in hand, pre-qualified
- Time to first call≈ 2 to 3 weeksSame day
- Timing edgeArrive after the list is picked overArrive first
Distress tells you a loan is in trouble. APIP tells you the owner is ready, and why. That is the difference between working a list and closing a deal.
Every flagged asset ranked, with the reason.
Five bands. Every band ships with the pierced sponsor, the documented reason, and a verified contact. Re-scored daily as the maturity wall moves.
- CRITICALSponsor pierced. No extension left · over-levered ×3 assets✓
- CRITICALSponsor pierced. Partnership split · forced timeline✓
- HIGHSponsor pierced. Debt yield 6.1% · refi gap at maturity✓
- HIGHSponsor pierced. Portfolio rebalance · exiting market✓
- MODERATESponsor pierced. Watching rates · soft intent✓
- NOT READYSponsor pierced. Brand presence only · no direct outreach✓
Pipeline rows and counts shown are representative samples, not a live data pull
PUBLIC fields are from the Lee Clerk recorded mortgage. INFERRED fields apply standard CMBS conventions to public data, pending servicer confirmation. SERVICER fields are available to customers under DPA. No lis pendens or refi activity detected as of last deed-registry pull.
Every field sourced. Every signal ranked.
The example to the right is a real $120.5M CMBS-structured loan recorded at the Lee Clerk in April 2017, sitting on a 10-year maturity window into 2027. PUBLIC fields are from the recorded instrument. INFERRED fields apply CMBS conventions to public data. SERVICER fields populate from the CMBS servicer feed under customer DPA.
- Lee Clerk deed registry · refreshed 24-72h
- FL SunBiz · borrower entity monitoring
- CMBS servicer feed · < 24h refresh, customer-tier access
- Lis pendens watch · foreclosure detection at recording
- Maturity proximity scoring · 6-month advance window
Five tiers of distress signal, ranked by confidence.
The Motivation Index is built on top of this taxonomy. T1 signals are the highest-confidence, most time-sensitive opportunities. T5 signals are early indicators that require additional validation before outreach.
- T1
Maturity proximity
Loan matures within 12 months. No refi activity detected in deed or entity filings.
e.g. Bell Tower Shops, matures 03/2026HIGH - T2
Ownership velocity
Entity change, registered-agent replacement, or new deed filing within 90 days.
e.g. 3 entity changes in 18 monthsHIGH - T3
Debt-stack anomaly
LTV > 70%, DSCR < 1.20x, or interest-only period expiring within 6 months.
e.g. LTV 78.4%, IO expires Q3 2025MED - T4
Servicer watch-list
Asset appears on CMBS servicer watch list or special servicer transfer detected.
e.g. Transferred to special servicer 11/2024MED - T5
Market comp divergence
NOI or occupancy materially below market comp set for asset class and submarket.
e.g. Occupancy 61% vs. 84% submarket avg.LOW
Stop working the same list.
Data platforms give you records. CRMs give you contacts. Nurture tools keep you busy. APIP gives you sellers, with the reason they will sell.